Expectations for Central Michigan in New Mexico Bowl


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ALBUQUERQUE, N.M. – Central Michigan is one of seven teams from the Mid-American Conference participating in a bowl game.

More importantly, the Chippewas (8-5, 6-2 MAC) have a shot to win their first postseason game since 2012.

With the task at hand comes a matchup against San Diego State in the New Mexico Bowl at 2 p.m. Saturday at Dreamstyle Stadium in Albuquerque, New Mexico. The Aztecs are 9-3 overall with a 5-3 mark in the Mountain West Conference.

The New Mexico Bowl is a familiar territory for Central Michigan coach Jim McElwain.

When McElwain was at Colorado State in 2013, his team played against Washington State in the bowl game. The Rams scored 18 points in the final 172 seconds to pull out a 48-45 victory.

This time around, McElwain is leading the charge against SDSU, a defensive-minded opponent led by coach Rocky Long.

Central Michigan Life football writers Evan Petzold, Austin Chastain and Christian Booher give their expectations for Saturday's matchup.

What are your initial thoughts on the matchup?

Booher: It has all the makings of a good matchup. San Diego State is certainly a defensive powerhouse that will cause problems for a Chippewa offense that can be both high powered and stagnant, depending on the situation. It's a great bowl game in the fact that it matches up two good coaches who pride themselves on opposite sides of the ball. 

Petzold: This game is a classic offense vs. defense clash, where one team relies heavily on offense and the other focuses specifically on defense. Due to the strengths of San Diego State coach Rocky Long's defense, the Chippewas will need explosive plays through the air. There's a lot of pressure on graduate transfer senior quarterback Quinten Dormady.

Chastain: Defensive strength looks to be the story here. CMU has one of the best defenses in the Mid-American Conference while San Diego has one of the best defenses in the entire country. The Chippewas' offense has to show up and show out early and throw the Aztecs out of their groove defensively. Explosive plays are a must for CMU, maybe even a trick play to swing momentum. 

Does Central Michigan have an advantage in a certain aspect of the game?

Booher: I certainly think the Chippewas have more weapons offensively. Dormady does a good job of getting the ball in the hands of all his playmakers and guys like Kalil Pimpleton and JaCorey Sullivan can make plays in the open space. The Chippewas certainly have a more explosive offense than their counterparts. 

Petzold: It's all about offense, but if Central Michigan can't take care of the football, it's going to be a rough game. In high-pressure moments, Dormady and the running backs have fumbled the football away when pressure ensues. So, while there's a clear offensive advantage, it won't mean much without protection from the offensive line and being able to take care of the ball.

Chastain: Almost sounds like a broken record, but really the Chippewas' only advantage in this game is when they have the ball. While the CMU defense is good, the Aztec defense is just that much better. SDSU is also +15 in the turnover margin, which ranks third in the country. 

Who is one player that could have a breakout performance?

Booher: I’m going to take a flyer and say the duo of Norman Anderson and Brandon Brown. Each has had their fair share of struggles throughout the season but given the injuries to Darius Bracy and Kyron McKinnie-Harper, they will get another chance to prove their abilities. Given their struggles on film, it’s likely that whoever gets the start will be tested early and often. If the defensive backs are able to make the passing game difficult early on, the Chippewas’ stout run defense can take control of the contest. 

Petzold: This one is pretty simple for me – backup quarterback Tommy Lazzaro. Look at the numbers, and you'll understand. He has scored six touchdowns in the last three games and seven in the last four. All of his scores are on the ground, and opponents have been unable to stop him in the run-pass option. Hopefully, McElwain gives Lazzaro more reps this time around after only allowing him six carries in the MAC championship loss.

Chastain: Redshirt freshman Tyrone Scott has been a valuable asset in the passing game for both Dormady and junior quarterback David Moore. He caught two touchdown passes in the season opener and has come of nowhere seemingly in his freshman season. Through the 13 games Central Michigan has played, Scott has caught 34 passes for 609 yards and five touchdowns. Look for Scott to be an integral part of the Chippewas' game plan in the passing game. 

What does Central Michigan have to do to win?

Booher: They're going to have to do all they can to avoid becoming one dimensional. When you have two running backs that are hovering around the 1,000-yard mark, you have to get them involved somehow. When the Chippewas become one dimensional, they get stagnant, as evidenced in the MAC championship loss when both Ward and Lewis were essentially silenced. Both will need to be a factor if the Chippewas are going to move through this phenomenal San Diego State defense. 

Petzold: If Central Michigan wants to win, it has to control the clock and take care of the football. Turnovers have been the difference-maker, much like against Buffalo in a 43-20 loss. It seems to be the one statistical category the team can't come back from. If McElwain's group takes care of the ball and doesn't turn it over, there's a solid chance of winning.

Chastain: The Chippewas are undefeated when they score first and have yet to win when their opponent strikes first. In this game for Central Michigan, it needs to seize control and dictate the momentum early and keep the Aztecs out of it. 

Will Daniel Richardson's gold beanie make the trip to Albuquerque?

Booher: Absolutely. 

Petzold: Of course. It's basically Richardson's trademark at this point.

Chastain: We saw it at Ford Field for the MAC title game, we will see it in the bowl game, for sure. 

Do you think Daniel Richardson will trade his beanie for his helmet and get playing time?

Booher: I don't think so. This will be a battle, and I don't think McElwain creates a package for him simply because it's the bowl game. Unless it's a blowout, don't expect to see Richardson. 

Petzold: I don't think there's a chance unless the game becomes a blowout one way or the other. However, when reviewing the statistical matchup, I highly doubt one team will pull away. Getting Richardson in the game and allowing him to play a significant amount of drives would be beneficial for the future. I just don't believe McElwain will roll out that card since he would have to bench Dormady, who was the first-year coach's top pull from the NCAA transfer portal. I don't see McElwain turning his back on the player he brought into the program.

Chastain: Agree with Evan, playing two quarterbacks with Dormady and Lazzaro has worked but that is about the maximum number of guys under center in a close game. If it is more than a three-score game either way, look for Richardson to make his way into the game. If it is close, look for the true freshman to remain on the sideline and call plays in. 

Score prediction? 

Booher: San Diego State 21, Central Michigan 13

Petzold: San Diego State 21, Central Michigan 10

Chastain: San Diego State 23, Central Michigan 16

Isaac Ritchey: Central Michigan 9, San Diego State 5

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