Candidates vie for key states
Bill Ballenger believes Republican presidential candidate John McCain needs a repeat of the voting patterns from four years ago to win this election.
"McCain has to win all the states that George W. Bush won in 2000 and 2004," the former Griffin Endowed Chair said. "He can't afford to lose any, but I don't think he's going to."
While each candidate has states on which they can rely, there still are key contested states that could tip the election in favor of McCain or Obama.
McCain seems to have fewer states he can lose while still winning the election, Ballenger said.
With Obama's numbers rising since the recent economic crisis, McCain has had to start defending and spending resources on states that were thought to be reliably Republican. One such state is Virginia, has not voted Democrat in a presidential election since 1964.
Obama is polling well in several key Republican states that voted for President George W. Bush in both of his victories, and is not having to expend many resources on defending traditionally Democratic states.
"Obama is now threatening to carry states like Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Nevada, Colorado, Virginia," Ballenger said. "Those are all Bush states and states Republicans usually count on to win."
While those states are still up for grabs and being pursued by both campaigns, one state that is no longer a hot issue is Michigan.
"Michigan is a lost cause by McCain's own decisions," Ballenger said, referring to the McCain's decision to pull his TV ads and most of his staff out of the state.
Political science professor Thomas Stewart said McCain's pullout from Michigan was the wrong move.
"I think it's a major mistake; it makes no sense," Stewart said. "From what I understand, (Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin) wasn't even consulted on the decision."
Stewart also thinks financial resources have something to do with McCain's decision to leave Michigan.
"They have a lot less money than Obama, so they have to concentrate on states where they have a better shot of winning," he said. "I do understand that with Virginia and North Carolina in play, it makes sense to pull out of a blue state to defend two red states."
Even though Michigan has not voted for a Republican since 1988 and the state has two Democratic senators and a two-term Democratic governor, the state was considered in play by many political pundits. Michigan's 17 electoral votes are the seventh most in the electoral college.
Even with McCain pulling out Michigan, the Obama campaign is not ready to take Michigan for granted, said Matt Sous, president of Students for Barack Obama and Freeland senior.
"The Obama campaign hasn't claimed victory just yet; the only poll that matters is the results on Election Day," Sous said. "We're working just as hard as we were when Michigan was still considered a swing state and still running the largest operation the state of Michigan has ever seen."
The political Web site politico.com also lists North Carolina, Florida, Pennsylvania, Ohio, Wisconsin and Missouri as "swing states" and any combination of these states could tip the election in either candidate's favor.
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